In the first-ever installment of “Data Diving with Dylan,” Dylan Burhans analyzes Anthony Duclair and how he fits onto the Islanders
On July 1st, Lou Lamoriello signed left winger Anthony Duclair to a team-friendly deal–$3.5 million AAV for four years. Known for his speed and scoring ability, “The Duke” has the potential to be one of the greatest steals of Free Agency. Here’s why:
Duclair will likely begin this season on the top line with Bo Horvat and Mathew Barzal. This drastic boost in ice time will pay dividends for the Pointe-Claire, Quebec, native. Duclair was playing approximately 15 minutes per night last season, which he split between the San Jose Sharks and the Tampa Bay Lightning. Playing on the top line should give Duclair roughly 19 or 20 minutes a night. This increase in TOI, combined with skating alongside Barzal and Horvat, will help skyrocket Duclair’s production.
Anthony Duclair Skating Overview (courtesy NHL EDGE)
Let’s dive into the numbers.
Last season, Duclair’s top skating speed of 23.32 mph ranked in the 93rd percentile across the entire league. He also had 156 speed bursts over 20 mph, which ranked in the 89th percentile. To compare, Barzal’s top speed of 23.53 mph ranked in the 96th percentile, and he had 338 speed bursts over 20 mph (98th percentile).
Keep in mind, Duclair achieved this despite his 179.45 miles skated falling below the 50th percentile while Barzal’s 267.51 skating distance ranked in the 94th percentile. With more ice time, Duclair will have more opportunities to show off his insane speed and agility, especially when creating scoring chances off the rush alongside Barzal.
Paring these two elite skaters should create problems for opposing defensemen across the NHL.
Anthony Duclair – Mat Barzal Skating Comparison (courtesy NHL EDGE)
“Duclair should be able to find immediate chemistry with Barzal and Horvat.”
Scoring
When it comes to scoring goals, Duclair has the potential to put up 30 goals for the Blue and Orange. Duclair has only hit the 30-goal mark once—back during the 2021-2022 season for the Florida Panthers when he put up 31. However, it is important to remember he missed most of the following season, 2022-2023, due to an Achilles tendon injury. Duclair only scored two goals in 20 games that season before being traded to the struggling San Jose Sharks.
This past season, Duclair put up solid numbers on a Sharks team that could not find the back of the net—his 16 goals in 56 games was second on the team. When traded to the Tampa Bay Lightning in March, his production boomed, with eight goals and 15 points in 17 games playing on a line with Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov.
Without offensive support on the Sharks, he put up respectable numbers. With support on the Lighting, his level of production adjusted accordingly. This is also reflected in the 2021-2022 season, the year he put up 31 goals. That year, he split time between the Barkov-Verhaeghe line and the Bennett-Huberdeau line, both elite lines for the Panthers. This shows that Duclair has the capabilities to post 30 goals when having support from his linemates.
Anthony Duclair Shot Location (courtesy NHL EDGE)
Outlook
Duclair should be able to find immediate chemistry with Barzal and Horvat. He and Barzal are two of the best skaters in the league. Barzal’s pure playmaking abilities should combine greatly with Duclair’s elite goal-scoring / finishing skills. Meanwhile, Horvat plays a strong two-way game—he can score goals from the dirty areas on the ice, win important faceoffs, and cover defensively for Duclair and Barzal. Overall, these three players complement each other perfectly.
In summary, Duclair can be the steal of this past free agency. He has the speed and scoring touch the Islanders sorely lacked. These abilities, combined with an increased TOI alongside Barzal and Horvat, will help his production soar.
(Stats and information from MoneyPuck, NHL EDGE, NHL.com, Elite Prospects, TSN, and ESPN)
Anthony Duclair, signed 4x$3.5M by NYI, is a speedy rushing winger who creates chances at a strong rate and scores on them too. Downsides are poor defence and 5 goals in 39 career playoff games. #Isles pic.twitter.com/88uIZ6csPT
— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) July 1, 2024
Anthony Duclair – WAR (@JFreshHockey, Twitter)
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