With the trade deadline approaching, Noah Pedrazzoli and Dylan Burhans look into superstar Mikko Rantanen as a fit for the Islanders.
With the trade deadline days away, a lot of names have been floated the Islanders’ way. But there is one name that is continuously overlooked: Mikko Rantanen. The star winger has had his ups and downs since being traded from the Colorado Avalanche to the Carolina Hurricanes. With the Hurricanes increased uncertainty in extending him, why not consider the New York Islanders as his new home?
Overview
It’s no secret Mikko Rantanen has struggled since being traded to Carolina. In 11 games played, he has only put up two goals and four assists. With four points (1 G, 3 A) and a -3 in the last five games, combined with the lack of an extension, Rantanen has found himself on the trade board once again. With Rantanen’s play falling off, many fans are left wondering if Rantanen was simply a product of Nathan MacKinnon. So, if the Islanders are looking to acquire the Finnish superstar, it’s important to ask–how good is Mikko Rantanen?
Mikko Rantanen, acquired by CAR, is a top line winger whose size, finishing touch, and passing ability make him one of the toughest players to defend in the league. Can score from anywhere, great net-front presence, elite puck protector. #LetsGoCanes pic.twitter.com/M8ZM9qaoEi
— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) January 25, 2025
Mikko Rantanen’s WAR this season, per @JFreshHockey
With the Hurricanes
Rantanen has found a spot next to Sebastian Aho, with the left winger position revolving between Seth Jarvis, Jackson Blake, and now Andrei Svechnikov. All three of those lines have a positive xGoals%:
The trio of Jarvis – Aho – Rantanen posted an outstanding 76.5 xGoals% in a very small sample size (21.9 minutes across three games). The line of Blake – Aho – Rantanen were also dominant in a small time frame, with a 71.7 xGoals% in 55.7 TOI across four games. The current line of Svechnikov – Aho – Rantanen, while still positive, has not been elite. With a 51.9 xGoals% in 38.4 minutes across seven games, the trio have barely outscored the opposition.
Breaking that stat down, the line’s xGoals For of 2.8 is only slightly better than their xGoals Against of 2.6. This indicates that the trio is struggling to keep pucks out of their net, while only being able to score just enough to counterbalance relatively poor defense.
“Islanders fans have wanted an elite sniper next to Barzal for a long time, and Mikko Rantanen can be that guy for them.”
When comparing Sebastian Aho’s performance with other line mates, it paints a pretty grim picture for Mikko Rantanen and his fit in Carolina. Aho has proven to be an elite player working best alongside Jarvis, Svechnikov, or sometimes even both. A reason Rantanen may be struggling could be because of Svechnikov.
Rantanen has seen his shooting percentage plummet from 18.5% with Colorado earlier this season to 5.7% with Carolina. Even though he is currently posting roughly 3.2 shots per game (compared to roughly 2.8 shots per game with Colorado), he is not scoring goals. This could be because of where he is playing.
Both Rantanen and Svechnikov are shooting the puck at relatively the same rate (170 shots versus 162 in 60 games played). Both take the majority of their shots from the low slot. However, when looking at Rantanen compared to Svechnikov, Svechnikov’s heat map is more concentrated in the slot area. This could mean that Svechnikov is posting up in the spot where Rantanen usually is, thereby taking away Rantanen’s biggest weapon.
Rantanen needs both a strong playmaker and a two-way forward to cover for him defensively. Back in Colorado, he excelled playing next to Nathan MacKinnon and Arturri Lehkonen. With MacKinnon being one of the best playmakers in the league combined with Lehkonen’s strong defensive abilities, Rantanen was put in the best possible position to succeed. Enter Mat Barzal and Bo Horvat.
Mikko Rantanen’s shot heat map, per MoneyPuck
Andrei Svechnikov has been taking more shots in the low slot compared to Rantanen
Where he fits with the Islanders
While Mat Barzal is no Nathan MacKinnon, he is still an excellent playmaker. He put up 63 assists in his rookie year, and 57 assists last season. Despite the fact Barzal has only been a point-per-game player twice in his career, it is important to remember two things: throughout most of his career he was fitting into Barry Trotz’s defense-first system, and he did not always have the right linemates accompanying him. Islanders fans have wanted an elite sniper next to Barzal for a long time, and Mikko Rantanen can be that guy for them.
Barzal has shown flashes of brilliance next to Horvat, who is becoming one of the best two-way forwards on the team. Add Rantanen onto the top line and the Islanders have an elite forward unit. A top line of Barzal – Horvat – Rantanen would be a perfect fit, as Rantanen gets to play alongside a great playmaker in Barzal and a strong two-way option in Horvat. Barzal, once healthy, gets an elite finisher to bury his scoring chances, while Horvat can cover for his wingers defensively or provide a net-front presence for deflections.
While many fans would jump at the opportunity to add Mikko Rantanen into the mix, the Islanders would still have to acquire him first. For thoughts on what it would take to complete a blockbuster trade, be sure to check out Part II by Noah Pedrazzoli!
Mathew Barzal, signed to an 8x$9.15M extension by NYI, is a playmaking centre whose production has not really lined up with his almost unequalled transition and puck skills. A mediocre shot and a habit for making the safe play to the point has limited his impact. #Isles pic.twitter.com/teRbWBIhiu
— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) October 4, 2022
Mat Barzal is one of the best playmakers in the league, albeit underrated due to past coaching systems
(Stats and information courtesy of MoneyPuck, , PuckPedia, dailyfaceoff.com, and NHL EDGE)
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