In the latest segment of “Data Diving with Dylan,” Dylan Burhans analyzes Ilya Sorokin’s play since coming over to North America.
Ilya Sorokin has been one of the best goaltenders in the NHL since coming over from Russia in 2020. The KHL superstar was drafted in the third round (78th overall) back in 2014; however, there was a lot of uncertainty as to whether he would bring his talents to North America. It was easy to see why.
Sorokin won the Gagarin Cup (KHL Championship) during the 2018-2019 season, and he was even named playoff MVP for his stellar performance (1.19 GAA, .947 SV%, and 5 SO in 20 GP). Sorokin was deemed top goaltender in the KHL back in the 2015-2016 season, where he was also named to the First All-Star Team.
In addition to his success in the KHL, Sorokin has several international medals to his name, including three Bronze (World Championships), one Silver (U20 WJC), and one Gold (2018 Olympic Games). With all of his achievements in his home country, Sorokin seemed unattainable for Islanders fans.
Ilya Sorokin’s numbers are not currently up to his typical standards
Here is some context.
When Ilya Sorokin (or the “White Whale,” as he was endearingly dubbed by Mike Carver) finally traveled across the pond to Long Island, it marked a turning point for the organization.
The Islanders finally had a franchise goaltender to add to the core after a devastating loss in the Conference Finals the season before.
After a very shaky debut for the Islanders, Sorokin seemed to quickly return to superstar form: he finished the 2020-2021 season with a 2.17 GAA and .918 SV% with three shutouts. He even played exceptionally well in the playoffs, posting a 2.79 GAA and a .922 SV% in seven games played.
After one season serving as Semyon Varlamov’s backup, Sorokin took over the starting role. Sorokin put up elite numbers the next two seasons:
- In 2021-2022, he dominated in net with a 2.40 GAA and a .925 SV% with 7 SO
- In 2022-2023, Sorokin was nominated as a Finalist for the Vezina Trophy and named to the Second All-Star Team when he put up a 2.34 GAA and .924 SV% with 6 SO.
However, the team as a whole struggled throughout the 2023-2024 season.
The Islanders began blowing leads late in the game, and the defensive structure faltered. As a result, Sorokin failed to put up elite numbers as the organization relied on him too heavily with Varlamov out with injury. Sorokin started nine games in a row that year, and the wear and tear became obvious. This led to Sorokin losing the starting job when Varlamov returned.
Varlamov reclaimed the role as number #1 goalie during the playoff matchup against the Carolina Hurricanes. Sorokin started one game against the Canes, but was pulled during the second period after an abysmal 6.61 GAA and .786 SV% (3 goals against on 14 shots).
During the offseason, Sorokin underwent back surgery.
With news of the injury, fans went from worried to completely panicked. Sorokin had just finished his worst season of his professional career and was entering the 2024-2025 season with a massive extension (8 year, $8.250 million AAV). The pressure was on for Sorokin to bounce back, especially since the narrative started to shift.
After a relatively mundane 2023-2024 season, Sorokin was not seen as a top five goaltender. However, despite the team’s struggles the past two seasons, Sorokin has shown he is still an elite goalie in the NHL.
“Despite Sorokin’s remarkable play, the problematic special teams have tanked his numbers.”
Let’s dive into the numbers.
Ilya Sorokin began this season with Vezina-caliber numbers. In his first six starts, he posted save percentages well above the league average of .900: .941, .967, .909, . 917, .905, .914. Sorokin looked like his usual elite self.
However, as this season continued, it was apparent the team was laboring to win games. The trend of blowing leads continued from last year, while the special teams significantly worsened. Both the powerplay and penalty kill sit dead last in the league (10.9% and 64.4% respectively).
Despite Sorokin’s remarkable play, the problematic special teams have tanked his numbers. The team has mostly been unable to score goals when they need to, and countless defensive miscues have resulted in Sorokin being hung out to dry.
Across all situations, Sorokin has posted solid numbers: he has a 1.2 goals saved above expected (GSAx) and a 0.04 GAA better than expected (2.83 vs 2.87 expected). While these numbers do not jump off the page, this still shows that Sorokin is exceeding expectations.
Five-on-Five
Ilya Sorokin is an elite goalie 5-on-5: his 6.4 GSAx ranks 13th among all goalies who have played at least one game in the NHL this season (90 total). This puts him ahead of elite netminders such as Jacob Makstrom (4.9), Andrei Vasilevskiy (4.6), and Igor Shesterkin (3.3). For goalies who have played at least 20 games (roughly half the season to date), he ranks 10th.
Sorokin’s GAA during 5 on 5 is also elite: his 2.12 GAA is tied with Dallas’s Jake Oettinger for 13th out of 33 (for goalies with a minimum of 20 GP). His GAA is better than his xGAA of 2.38 (a 0.26 difference). Sorokin’s 5-on-5 WAR of 1.07 for goalies with at least 20 games played ranks 10th. This also puts him ahead of Markstrom (0.82), Vasilevskiy (0.76), and Shesterkin (0.55) for that category.
On the Penalty Kill
On the PK, Sorokin is statistically one of the worst goalies to play at least one game. To start, his GSAx of -4.7 ranks 87th out of 90. His xGA is 14.29, yet he has allowed 19 goals against. His GAA sits at a terrible 11.23 (which ranks 77th). And his xGAA is 8.45, which makes his GAA better than expected to be -2.78.
For goalies playing a minimum of 20 games, the picture is still grim: his -4.7 GSAx is third worst out of the 33 goalies (only ahead of Detroit’s Cam Talbot and Columbus’s Elvis Merzlikins). Sorokin’s WAR on the PK also falls at third worst among goalies with at least 20 games played (also ahead of Talbot and Merzlikins).
Sorokin also needs to improve on saving high-danger chances, as his save percentage of .785 in that category is below the league average of .804. However, this could be attributed to the dreadful penalty kill.
Overall
Overall, Ilya Sorokin sits at a respectable 2.83 GAA and .902 SV% with 2 SO. Furthermore, his 18 games with a save percentage above .900 ranks in the 87th percentile (well above the league average of 8.1). He has started 60% of his games with .900 or better, which falls in the 72nd percentile (above the league average of 52.8%).
Sorokin was ranked 5th overall in the NHL by NHL Network heading into this season
Ilya Sorokin, signed to a 8x$8.25M extension by NYI, is an elite goaltender. #Isles pic.twitter.com/0y2yvnrFQ2
— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) July 1, 2023
Ilya Sorokin’s WAR at the time of his contract extension per @JFreshHockey
#Isles G Ilya Sorokin over last 9 games:
— Stefen Rosner (@stefen_rosner) December 20, 2024
5-on-5: 13 GA on 188 S, 1.89 GAA, .931 SV%
PK: 9 GA on 24 S, 19.03 GAA, .591 SV%
Ilya Sorokin’s numbers look a little different at 5-on-5 compared to on the penalty kill
So, what does all this mean?
Ilya Sorokin is playing well this season, that fact cannot be denied. While he should be stealing more games for the Islanders, it is important to note that the team has not been playing great in front of him. There have been several instances of the team failing to play adequate defense for Sorokin, which Patrick Roy has called them out on.
That being said, the Islanders need to tighten up their defense. While Sorokin can bail them out at times, he cannot be relied upon every night to do so.
As a goalie, there is only so much he can do.
Roy was as livid as he’s been since taking over as #Isles HC.
— Stefen Rosner (@stefen_rosner) December 13, 2024
Said his team stopped competing and if that happened in front of him, he would have broken a stick.
Said Sorokin is a gentleman but he didn’t deserve that and the team should feel badly.
The team in front of Sorokin has left him out to dry far too many times this season
If the team wants to succeed, they will have to fix their special teams and defensive play to give Sorokin a fighting chance. If the team does not score goals they will not win, no matter how well Sorokin plays. Furthermore, Sorokin cannot be expected to steal games when the penalty kill allows several high danger chances each night.
With the resurgence of Marcus Hogberg, Sorokin can also get the rest he needs to continue playing at an elite level. While Varlamov is still out with an injury, Hogberg can help hold down the fort.
Roy does not have to run with Sorokin every night until Varlamov is back.
The team tried that last season and Sorokin became too worn down. Hogberg has shown he can be reliable down the line. Getting proper rest will help Sorokin as the season progresses.
If the Islanders can improve their structure in the D-zone and boost the special teams even by a little bit, Sorokin should be able to lock down more games for them.
He is still one of the best goalies 5 on 5, but the awful penalty kill is weighing down on him. Turn that around, and Ilya Sorokin could repeat as a Vezina candidate sooner rather than later.
Catch the latest episode of HNiNY featuring special guest co-host Mike Leboff of Islanders Anxiety and Chris Peters of FloHockey
(Stats and information courtesy of Hockey Reference, Money Puck, NHL EDGE, JFresh, PuckPedia, Elite Prospects, and NHL.com)
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