In the latest “Data Diving with Dylan,” Dylan Burhans evaluates Noah Dobson to determine if he is the Islanders’ X-Factor this season.
Since being drafted in the first round (12th overall) back in 2018, Noah Dobson has developed into a staple offensive defenseman for the Islanders’ blueline.
After booming offensively last season, Dobson was looking primed to take the next step, or maybe even a jump, in his career. However, recent struggles on both ends of the ice have changed the hype around Dobson.
During Hockey Night in New York’s first episode of the season, NHL.com’s Brian Compton referred to Dobson as the X-Factor for the Islanders’ playoff hopes this year.
While many fans may consider someone like Mat Barzal or Ilya Sorokin to be the one to lead the Islanders to the playoffs, Noah Dobson is critical for the team’s success.
Brian Compton emphasizes the importance of Noah Dobson
Here is some context.
It’s no secret that the offensive capabilities of the Islanders’ defensive corps became severely limited since the departures of Devon Toews (2020) and Nick Leddy (2021). The hope at the time was for Noah Dobson to step into that role and become the mobile, puck-moving defenseman he was in the QMJHL where he won back-to-back Memorial Cups with Acadie-Bathurst and Rouyn-Noranda respectively.
With the position of “defenseman” changing to reflect the faster-pace, more skilled NHL, teams nowadays are investing in speedy D-men who can put up high offensive numbers from the backend.
With that in mind, it is important to ask the following–how good is Noah Dobson? Has he fulfilled that role? Does this really make him the X-Factor for the Islanders?
“If Dobson wants to bring his goal-scoring numbers back to where they should be, he will have to generate more high-danger shot attempts.”
Let’s dive into the numbers.
After scoring 49 points in the 2022-2023 campaign, Dobson exploded in an offensive-breakout season in 2023-2024. With 70 points in 79 games, Dobson was in the Norris conversation throughout the first half of the season.
However, as the Islanders struggled, so did Dobson–his point production started to decline as the season went on. Despite this, the underlying metrics show there is no cause for alarm.
Puck Possession
Dobson finished the 2023-2024 season with a positive Corsi and Fenwick (52% for both). This means that the Islanders were controlling the puck and generating more offensive chances for than against while he was on the ice.
Across all strengths, the puck was in the offensive zone 41.9% of the time, compared to 40.6% in the defensive zone, when Dobson was on the ice. Both of these stats are better than the league average for defensemen (40.0% and 42.0%, respectively).
Currently, Dobson has positive Corsi (55%) and Fenwick (56%) throughout the first quarter of the season. When Dobson is on the ice, the puck spends 43.7% of the time in the offensive zone, compared to just 39.1% of time in the defensive zone, compared to the league average for defensemen (41.9% and 40.3% respectively).
These numbers show that Dobson’s puck possession metrics are actually improving compared to last season. While Dobson has made several mistakes at key moments in games (more on that later), his ability to create scoring chances for his teammates remains strong.
Noah Dobson overview (courtesy NHL EDGE)
Noah Dobson zone time at all strengths (courtesy NHL EDGE)
Skating
Dobson’s top speed of 22.53 mph ranked in the 65th percentile throughout the entire NHL during the 2023-2024 season. He also had three speed bursts greater than 22 mph (69th percentile), 66 bursts between 20-22 mph (50th percentile), and 330 speed bursts between 18-20 mph (below 50th percentile).
While some of you may see that last stat and feel worried, don’t be. The league average for defensemen in terms of 18-20 mph speed bursts was 165. Dobson doubled that.
This shows that Dobson is one of the greatest skating defensemen–all of his metrics are well above league-average for his position. He was also heavily relied upon–his 264.89 miles skated ranked in the 93rd percentile, meaning he was deployed in many different situations to help transition the puck or backcheck on defense.
This season, Dobson already recorded a top speed of 21.80 mph (73rd percentile). He also has 21 speed bursts between 20-22 mph (85th percentile). With 88.53 miles skated (95th percentile), Dobson continues to be a tremendous mobile defenseman for the Islanders.
If Dobson can continue to use his elite skating abilities to help move the puck up the ice, the Islanders will spend even less time in their own zone. In turn, this will take pressure off of Ilya Sorokin and Semyon Varlamov, while also allowing the forward corps the opportunity to generate more scoring chances.
For a team that is struggling to score goals, this is imperative.
Noah Dobson skating speed (courtesy NHL EDGE)
Noah Dobson skating distance at all strengths (courtesy NHL EDGE)
Scoring
Last season was actually a slightly down year for Dobson when it came to goal-scoring. He only fired off 174 shots, compared to 206 shots in 2022-2023 and 190 shots in 2021-2022.
His shooting percentage was also down–he converted on 5.7% of his shots (for a total of 10 goals) compared to 6.3% (2022-2023) and 6.8% (2021-2022) the two years prior. Dobson posted 13 goals in each of those seasons.
Dobson has had an unusually slow start to this season–only one goal and 10 assists (11 points) in 26 games played. This is a 34 point pace over the full season, which would be his lowest point total since the 2020-2021 season.
If Dobson wants to bring his goal-scoring numbers back to where they should be, he will have to generate more high-danger shot attempts.
He currently has 96 low danger unblocked shot attempts, which ranks first on the team by a large margin (Bo Horvat is second with 76). However, he only has two high danger unblocked shot attempts and eight medium danger unblocked shot attempts.
With 74 shots on goal (which ranks fourth on the team), Dobson should have more points by now. However, this shows that he is taking his shots from lower-danger areas or situations. Dobson needs to start generating more high-danger shots if he is to take the next step in his career.
Defense
The top pairing of Noah Dobson and Alex Romanov struggled to start the season. They were being out-chanced and outplayed. However, they seemingly found their game.
With a 52.2% xGoals% (which ranks third among defensive pairings), the young duo overall has been creating more scoring chances for than allowing chances against. However, one thing to point out is that both their xGoals For (9.7) and xGoals Against (8.9) are highest among Islanders d-pairs.
This means that while they are generating many scoring chances for the team, they are still giving up a lot of chances against.
Arthur Staple discusses Noah Dobson’s struggles this season
If this pair wants to continue their elite play from last season, they will have to tighten things up in the defensive zone. Dobson currently ranks first on the team in takeaways with 16, but he also has 38 giveaways (which is highest on the team).
However, Dobson has been contributing defensively in other regards–his 54 Shots Blocked and 2.1 Shots Blocked per Game are second on the team behind only Pulock. His Shots Blocked per 60 ranks fourth with 5.11 (only behind Scott Mayfield, Romanov, and Pulock).
While Dobson has had several miscues and defensive lapses before (the turnover during the Stadium Series and the last two goals of this year’s opener against Utah immediately come to mind), he has taken great strides in his game.
With Patrick Roy emphasizing accountability and hard work, it would not surprise me to see Dobson’s game away from the puck drastically improve this season. However, it is important to remember that these things take time. Dobson is only 24 years old, and defensemen typically take longer to develop than forwards.
With the emergence of Isaiah George, many fans may point out his poise compared to Dobson’s. However, George and Dobson are their own players–one cannot assume that what works with one player will work for the other. It is up to Roy to get the best out of his players.
Outlook
Given the statistics, it is safe to say Dobson successfully filled the gap left by Leddy and Toews. The Islanders sorely missed speed and mobility from the backend, and Dobson has done a great job with puck movement so far.
While yes, his puck management skills and defensive play need to be refined, he is still young and has time to improve that aspect of his game.
Noah Dobson has the makings to be a top offensive defenseman in the entire NHL–his name was in the Norris conversation last year for a reason.
If he can work on his defensive inconsistencies while restoring his offensive numbers, Dobson can become an elite #1 defensemen for the Islanders.
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